Every summer in 115.football, every player at a Premier League or Championship club has a price, along with everyone who really moved to England that summer. Some of those prices are what clubs really paid. The rest are worked out from how the real market valued players like him. Once you know how the prices are set, you can see where the value is. Here's what our data shows across all nine summers.
Real fees are the real fee
If a player really moved that summer for a fee, his price in the game is that fee. If Spurs really sold him for £30m in 2012, he costs you £30m in 2012.
That matters because the market in 2009 to 2017 often undervalued players who turned out to be great, and you know which ones they were. A real fee is a fixed, known number. It doesn't go up because you know how good he became.
Players who weren't for sale cost extra
A player who didn't really move that summer wasn't on the market. His club would have wanted a premium to sell, and the game charges one. The better he was the season before, the bigger the premium.
In our data, the gap is clear at the top end. Among players who'd just had an elite season:
| Elite players, by how they moved that summer | Average price |
|---|---|
| Really moved for a fee | £37.1m |
| Not for sale | £44.4m |
The same pattern holds lower down. For a good, established player, one bought "off the market" costs nearly twice as much as one who really left on a free.
The tip: if two players would do the same job for you, the one who really changed clubs that summer is usually the better deal.
Free transfers are the cheapest quality there is
Players who really moved on a free that summer get no premium at all. They cost what the market would normally pay for a player like them. For good players, that was around £8m on average, against £15m for similar players who weren't for sale.
Free transfers in this era were often older players, so check the age (see age and value). But a 27-year-old on a free is one of the best buys in the game.
Players who just moved are expensive
If a player moved for a big fee in the last three summers, that fee sets a floor on his price. The market has already decided what he's worth. The floor comes down slowly once he's 27 or older, but not before.
In our data, good players with a recent big fee were the most expensive group of all: £21.4m on average, against £15m for similar players who weren't for sale. The best moment to buy a star is usually before his big move, not just after it.
Unproven youngsters are cheap
A young player who barely played the season before is priced as unproven. With fewer than ten league appearances, his going rate drops sharply. You know which teenagers broke through. The market in 2009 didn't.
That's the purest form of hindsight in the game, and it's fair: real clubs had the same chance and didn't take it. Just remember that a youngster who didn't play last season may not be ready to start this one. A signing only counts when he plays.
Fees go up every summer
The whole market climbed through the decade, and the game's prices climb with it:
| Summer | Typical player (median) | Top 10% starts at | Top 1% starts at |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | £1.5m | £6m | £28.5m |
| 2011 | £1m | £6m | £24.6m |
| 2013 | £1.5m | £10m | £37.5m |
| 2015 | £1.5m | £10m | £36m |
| 2017 | £2m | £13.5m | £53.3m |
The big jump comes in 2013, when the new TV deal arrived and clubs started spending like it. A player you could have had for £25m in 2011 might cost £40m or more by 2014. If you know you want someone, the earlier summer is nearly always cheaper.
Signing from a rival hurts them
When you sign a player, he leaves his real club for as long as he's yours. Sign the best player at a title rival and that rival is weaker every season he's in your squad. If he's released, his club gets him back from the next season.
That makes a signing from your nearest rival worth more than the same player from a club you'll never meet in a race. It's the one way to change the strength of another team in the league.
The short version
- Real fees are fixed. Players who weren't for sale cost a premium.
- Free transfers are the best value, especially in their twenties.
- Buy before the big move, not after.
- Young players who hadn't broken through yet are cheap, but check they'll play.
- Prices roughly double across the decade, with the big jump in 2013.
- A signing from a rival counts twice: you get stronger and they get weaker.