A signing in 115.football isn't a one-season loan. He stays until you release him, he retires, or 2017/18 ends. Each season he plays as well as he really did that season. So the real question isn't "how good is he?" but "how good is he going to be, and for how long?" Age is the best clue you have.
What the data says
We looked at every player who turned out to be top class in the season he could be bought, from summers 2009 to 2014. For each one we counted how many of the next four seasons, including that one, he stayed at or near that level. Then we put that next to his price.
| Age when bought | Average price | Top-class seasons out of the next four | Cost per top-class season |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 or under | £11.5m | 2.8 | £4.0m |
| 22 to 24 | £21.7m | 3.1 | £6.9m |
| 25 to 28 | £20.4m | 2.9 | £7.1m |
| 29 to 30 | £14.7m | 2.0 | £7.3m |
| 31 and over | £14.3m | 1.7 | £8.3m |
Three things stand out.
Young players are the best value by a distance. A top-class player aged 21 or under costs about half what a 22 to 24-year-old does, and gives you almost as many good seasons. That's partly the market not trusting youth and partly real clubs not seeing what was coming. You can.
22 to 24 is the most reliable age. Those players stay at their best the longest. They aren't cheap, but if you want a player who'll still be good in four years, this is the band.
Veterans are cheap for a reason. A 31-year-old who's still great this season will probably fade within a year or two. In real life players decline from their early thirties, and the game follows their real careers, so a veteran buys you one or two good seasons at most.
When a veteran makes sense
Veterans aren't a trap. They're a tool. The market caps what anyone will pay for a player aged 29 or over, so a world-class 30-year-old can cost much less than he's worth to you this season.
Good times to buy one:
- Late in the run. In 2016 or 2017 there aren't many seasons left anyway, so a player who only has two good years in him has nothing to lose.
- To fill one gap for one season, while a younger player you've bought develops.
- When you're one player short of a title, and the next summer you can afford to replace him.
Bad times: as the centrepiece of a 2009 squad you expect to last.
Retirements and releases
When a signing really retires, he leaves your squad and frees his place. You don't get money back. The same goes for releasing someone: he goes back to his real career and the fee stays spent.
So the true cost of a signing is his fee divided by the seasons he's useful to you. A £40m 23-year-old who's excellent for six years costs less per season than a £15m 32-year-old who's good for one.
Fitness matters too
A player only helps when he's available. If he missed half of the real season through injury, your club's own player covers the other half, and you get half the benefit. Top-class seasons almost always come with a player who was fit nearly all year. Before you pay big money, ask whether he played most of that season.
The short version
- Judge a signing by cost per useful season, not price alone.
- Under-22s who were about to break through are the best value in the game.
- 22 to 24-year-olds last the longest.
- Veterans are cheap one or two-season fixes, best used late or as a stopgap.
- An injury-prone star gives you part of a star.
For how prices are set in the first place, read where the bargains are in the transfer market.